Monday, December 22, 2008

the world of work in 2018

The latest edition of Workforce Management has a feature on experts' predictions for what the world of HR will look like ten years from now. (The story isn't available online yet.)

Here's what caught my eye.

Top predictions for 2018 regarding the structure of work:

#1

There will be an increased focus on infrastructures-- such as social networks and wikis-- to support building strong relationships and collaboration.

#2

The structure of work will become more adaptive, more informal and less focused on formal structure and static design solutions.

#3 [a five-way tie!]

"Agile" organizations will have survived rampant aggregation and consolidation, and all organizations will be developing greater agility.

There will be greater demands on HR professionals to be businesspeople, with competencies in finding and retaining talent and in managing contract and freelance workers.

Organizations will have the ability to personalize the employee value proposition, helping employees find value in the work they do based on how they interact with the company. Some employees will be full time and long term. Others will be short term and part time.

Flexibility will no longer be optional. Employees will expect to utlize both short- and long-term flexibility options to meet their needs.

The most successful organizations will have a performance culture or meritocracy and will demand extraordinary effort from those who wish to achieve leadership positions.


Top predicitions for 2018 regarding work and society:

#1

Societies throughout the world will focus on work as a more important crucible for social progress and values. The memory of today's financial crisis will leave a legacy of greater scrutiny and regulation of issues such as fairness, pay diffefrentials and wthics, particularly in traditional Western economies.

#2

Millennials will redefine work, doing work at home and taking home to work. This means blurring the boundaries of life and work. More workforce mobility will allow people to work from home and at different hours.

#3

There will be more emphasis on collaboration and using technology to support it.

stress, fear, action, relief

Great post in Steve Roesler's All Things Workplace blog.

"Do something now. Feel the relief that follows. You and I have more control over our stress than we sometimes care to acknowledge."

too much information....

At the Freakonomics blog, Stephen Dubner asks "what to do about too much data."

The problem is ... reading and research is so much fun that it is really hard to limit yourself. Especially in this age of Google (and Google Books) and Amazon and even Wikipedia (yes, I was an early detractor but have come around on certain subjects), I am constantly trying to take a little sip from a firehose, and it’s nearly impossible. Reading too much inevitably turns into wanting to write too much; in this case, shorter will be better, but it takes a lot of effort and a long time to get the right three paragraphs (as opposed to a much easier but, to my mind, less effective 12 paragraphs).


The problem is that the more I’ve read — and the more data I’ve consumed ... — the better those three paragraphs will be in the end. It reminds me of making maple syrup, which we did every winter as kids. You’d run around collecting all this sap, gallons and gallons of it from the trees you’d tapped, and then stay up all night boiling it down on an open fire — all to produce one little jar of syrup.



Nice metaphor. Unfortunately, nowadays we're often unwilling to invest the time and effort to tend that boiling maple=syrup kettle....

Meanwhile, in the WSJ's Juggle blog, Rachel Silverman asks whether "documenting" your family (i.e., photos, scrapbooks, etc) can take too much time.

I’m ... overwhelmed by the sheer volume of photos that digital photography makes possible. We literally have hundreds of pictures of our son, only 10 months old .... Looking through all the pictures and organizing them can sap up more time and energy than the events that we’ve documented.


Is it worth it? I wonder if it’s possible to take too many pictures, to spend too much time documenting, to focus too hard on capturing an event in an image or video, to rely too much on photos for memory, rather than really living and experiencing a moment and trying to imprint it in our brains. Sometimes, when my husband and I forget the camera we even get bummed out, at least for a moment, because we can’t capture whatever adorable expression or gesture our baby makes, rather than just truly enjoying the experience as is.



So true. Makes me think of the opening of Choruses From The Rock by T. S. Eliot:

The endless cycle of idea and action,


Endless invention, endless experiment,


Brings knowledge of motion, but not of stillness;


Knowledge of speech, but not of silence;


Knowledge of words, and ignorance of the Word.


All our knowledge brings us nearer to our ignorance,


All our ignorance brings us nearer to death,


But nearness to death no nearer to GOD.


Where is the Life we have lost in living?


Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?


Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Info Buffet

Tasty tidbits I’ve been sampling from the “info buffet” 12/9/08 – 12/11/08:

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HR Capitalist blog has a good story illustrating how “the behavioral DNA that defines a company's culture” manifests itself in telling ways.

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The Freakonomics blog. Introduces us the concept of a “buycott.” Unlike the negatively-focused boycott (where you choose not to patronize a business whose practices you don’t agree with), the “boycott” is a more affirmative measure: You promise to patronize a business if it implements certain practices you’d like to see in place. According to the Freakonomics gang,, “buycotts” have potentially more economic leverage than boycotts.

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Now that we have a recession, there's never been a better time for defining health as human capital. That’s the message of the latest entry in the Health as Human Capital Foundation’s research blog. Wendy Lynch and Hank Gardner have a refreshingly different view of the value of good health. For a more detailed description of their “health as human capital paradigm,” go here. The key point for me is that health is one of the three key assets (along with skills and motivation) that people bring with them to their jobs.

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And speaking of health and jobs, here’s a recent WSJ op-ed by Dr Ezekiel Emanuel (he was co-author of the WaPo piece on the myths of healthcare that recently caught my attention) and Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) arguing in favor of severing the link between employment and health insurance. One way or another, I think, the employment/health insurance link will be severed over the next several years—if not because of developments “on the left” (i.e., a national single-payer program), then because of developments “on the right” (i.e., a move to portable, defined-contribution type health accounts)…. For some more commentary on the Emanuel-Wyden op-ed, as well as socialized versus market-based approaches to health insurance, there’s this post by Matthew Holt in The Health Care Blog.

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I find myself reading a lot of materials about “market-based” approaches to health. Here’s one of them, courtesy of the WSJ Health Blog. Evidently, a study in the current issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests that if we paid people to lose weight, we could curb the obesity epidemic.

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Jane Sarasohn-Kahn is a healthcare economist whose work I’ve been following for the last half-year. I think she’s outstanding. One of her latest contributions is an article on how the economic downturn has been affecting people’s health behaviors. Bad economy leads to poor health behaviors. Jane combines insights from National Center for Health Statistics data about gender/age patterns in ambulatory visits to doctors with results of a recent AARP survey of how age 45+ Americans have altered healthcare behaviors due to the economic downturn and concludes that women's health outcomes in particular could decline in concert with the economy. Read the whole thing.

Jane also has another post about a recent National Research Corporation survey of “online health functions” that American households have been engaged in over the last year. The bottom line is that more and more people are doing a broader variety of health-related tasks online. In her “Hot Points” assessment, Jane sees evidence of what she calls the “Craigslistification” of health searching.

And be sure to check out Jane’s assessment of the NIH’s National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine’s latest report on use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in the United States. "Economics plays a role in the adoption of CAM. In both 2002 and 2007, when people delayed conventional health care due to cost, the use of CAM increased." Nutritional supplements (fish oil, glucosamine, and the like) were the most commonly used therapies; and musculoskeletal disorders (back issues, neck issues, joint disorders, etc) were the most common reason for using CAM.

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I spent yesterday morning at a decidedly non-CAM facility—a local gastroenterology center (I was waiting to pick someone up after a diagnostic procedure). While I was in the waiting room, I read the latest issue of Business Week, which had this highly informative article about how patients are using Web-based social networking to take charge of their own care. We’re going to be hearing a lot more about “Health 2.0” (especially if the “management gurus” get behind it, as this item indicates). And check out the end of the Business Week article—Jane’s everywhere these days!

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One my way home from the gastroenterology center yesterday, I stopped at Dunkin Donuts to pick up a late breakfast. Fast food places like DD are notorious for high employee turnover. Which leads me to the next item: An article on the kinds of “hard-knock turnover situations where [any HR professional] would have a hard time getting annualized turnover under 100 percent.” How many businesses in these five categories would appear on this list? Not many, I suppose.

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And finally: The WSJ Juggle blog asks readers how their families are using texting. I’m sorry, I just don’t get what the advantage of texting is (yeah, I know-- I’m old. I don’t get it.)

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

a tech bleg

For any readers (and I have no idea if I have any at this point!) who might be knowledgeable about HTML stuff: I just slightly modified my blog template, and many of my earlier posts seem to have gotten messed up. (The last couple seemed to be OK-- but I initially composed them in MS Word, then pasted into Blogger's composition window and tweaked from there.) Any advice on what to do?

selections from today's info buffet

  • America’s Health Rankings—a collaborative venture between United Health Foundation, the American Public Health Association, and the Partnership for Prevention—are available for 2008. (These rankings use the World Health Organization's more expansive definition of health, and consequently incorporate socioeconomic quality of life measures as well as the more traditional physical-health measures.) Check out the interactive map. There’s a clear geographic pattern to distribution of most- and least-healthy states. I’m wondering when someone will make comparisons between that map and this one.

  • “Time is money,” says Daniel Hamermesh in The New York Times’ Freakonomics blog, as he provides us a fascinating glimpse into the newest form of multi-tasking. (Seems to me like the opening refrain of this Chumbawamba video would be an appropriate accompaniment!)

  • I like the premise behind The New York Times Tierney Lab blog:

    John Tierney always wanted to be a scientist but went into journalism because its peer-review process was a great deal easier to sneak through. Now a columnist for the Science Times section, Tierney previously wrote columns for the Op-Ed page, the Metro section and the Times Magazine. Before that he covered science for magazines like Discover, Hippocrates and Science 86.

    With your help, he's using TierneyLab to check out new research and rethink conventional wisdom about science and society. The Lab's work is guided by two founding principles:

    1. Just because an idea appeals to a lot of people doesn't mean it's wrong.

    2. But that's a good working theory.


    Check out the TL’s most recent supersizing experiment. I have to find out if they’ve linked up with Brian Wansink and company, who specialize in research about “mindless eating.”

  • "Hey, Boss, I'm Not Sleeping I'm Learning." Steve Roesler’s All Things Workplace blog has some useful insights, based on neuroscience research, about the value of sleep to proper mental functioning. (Lots more related info at John Medina’s Brain Rules website. Check out video #7 on the main page, as well as the more detailed slideshow on sleep.)

Contagious Happiness

Maybe ten years ago, I was made aware of a book entitled Contagious Emotions, which was about the codependent nature of depression and how friends and relatives of someone suffering from depression could help the depressed person break free without themselves getting “infected.” Ever since then, I’ve enjoyed making reference to the concept of “contagious emotions” and watching peoples’ reaction when I did so.

And now, there’s this report in last Friday’s British Medical Journal demonstrating that emotions—at least to the extent they involve happiness-- are, well, contagious.

Co-authors James Fowler and Nicholas Christakis used records generated by the long-running Framingham Heart Study to do extensive social network analysis. Using responses to a subset of questions from the CES-D that were administered to participants several times throughout that study’s period, Fowler and Christakis were able to trace reported happiness levels of study participants and people in their social networks.

Here’s what they found:
  • “Clusters of happy and unhappy people are visible in the network, and the relationship between people’s happiness extends up to three degrees of separation (for example, to the friends of one’s friends’ friends.)”
  • Furthermore, people who are surrounded by lots of happy people, as well as people who are “central in the network” (a term of art in social network analysis that characterizes the type of person who in the old days would have been labeled as a BMOC), are more likely to have future happiness.
  • And finally, Fowler and Christakis found that geographic proximity was a major factor in the “transmission” of happiness: The closer you’re physically located to a happy person, the greater the likelihood you’ll be happy, too. (But the big exception here is the workplace. “Effects were not seen between coworkers.” And there were some puzzling findings regarding “coresident spouses.” See below for more on these two points.)

Press accounts of this study include ringing endorsements by several big names in the area of behavioral research. The Washington Post quotes Martin Seligman, the “founding father” of positive psychology, (“pathfinding … totally original … the findings are striking”) and Ed Diener, co-author along with Sonja Lyubomirsky of many of the reports that form the underpinning of Lyubomirsky’s recent book The How of Happiness (“extremely exciting … interesting, provocative and important). The Harvard Crimson refers to an e-mailed statement (“stunning”) by Daniel Gilbert, author of Stumbling on Happiness and TED conference speaker. And finally, the Gray Lady reports the tempered approbation of Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, who calls the study an “extremely important and interesting work” but has some difficulty accepting (in the absence of independent replication) one of the study’s conclusions, namely that the “happiness effect” was not as strong for co-resident spouses as it was for next door neighbors (8% versus 34%).

So this study is a big deal. And as the authors point out, it has major relevance for public health

There is of course a tradition of community approaches to mental health, but this longstanding concern is now being coupled with a burgeoning interest in health and social networks. More generally, conceptions of health and concerns for the wellbeing of both individuals and populations are increasingly broadening to include diverse "quality of life" attributes, including happiness. Most important from our perspective is the recognition that people are embedded in social networks and that the health and wellbeing of one person affects the health and wellbeing of others. This fundamental fact of existence provides a conceptual justification for the specialty of public health. Human happiness is not merely the province of isolated individuals.

But before we all hop on the “happiness is contagious” bandwagon, we need to take note of some soft spots in the research.

For one, there’s the puzzling finding that’s left Daniel Kahneman scratching his head. How can it be that having a happy next door neighbor has a more powerful effect on your own happiness than having a happy spouse? (The authors hypothesize that this may be due to the fact that people are more likely to take “happiness cues” from people of their own gender—and they note that in their study sample all spouses were opposite-gender.) As Dr Kahneman has pointed out, unless another study independently replicates this finding, it will be tough to accept it as being valid.

In a similar vein, it’s difficult to make sense of the finding that there was no “happiness effect” in the workplace. Fowler and Christakis write in the paper that this “suggest[s] that the social context might moderate the flow of happiness from one person to another” In other words, if happiness is a contagion, then there’s something powerful in the immune system of the workplace that counteracts it there. But what might that be? The paper itself doesn’t say, but the New York Times article says “Professor Fowler believes inherent competition at work might cancel out a happy colleague’s positive vibe.” But there are no indications of any plans—by Fowler and Christakis or any other researchers—to test out that hypothesis. So, in the absence of further illuminative research into why the workplace—where millions of people spend at least a quarter of their time in close proximity to each other—is immune to the contagious spread of happiness, you can count me along with Daniel Kahneman as someone who needs a bit more convincing.

These two (non-trivial) issues aside, there’s the underlying question of whether and to what extent correlation implies causation when you use social network analysis as applied to health outcomes. In the same issue of the British Medical Journal as the Fowler-Christakis paper, there’s another paper, by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston economist Ethan Cohen-Cole and Yale professor Jason Fletcher, that addresses just that.

What they found: “Current empirical methods used to estimate causal social network effects might detect implausible network effects, including "contagion" in headaches, skin problems, and height between adolescent friends.” In other words, it’s possible to apply the social network analysis methodology used by Fowler and Christakis to other data sets and to conclude that, if your friends are tall, you’re more likely to be tall yourself—an implausible (to put it mildly) example of the “contagion” effect.

The Harvard Crimson does a nice job putting the Cohen-Cole and Fletcher study in context:


“Our study certainly does not refute their happiness paper, but it just suggests some caution that if you don’t take care to control for other factors, that you might be finding contagion where none exists,” said Jason M. Fletcher, a professor of public health at Yale.

Fletcher co-authored a study suggesting that perceived network effects could be erroneous. Using the same statistical methods as the happiness study, his study found that characteristics like acne, headaches, and height are contagious among adolescents, indicating that the methods used in the happiness study can produce spurious results.

“There’s no such thing as a social contagion in height,” Fletcher said.

Fletcher and his co-author, B. Cohen-Cole ’95, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, suggested that the happiness study could be biased because happy people are often friends and that their good moods are not necessarily influenced by each other.

“Friends select people to be their friends based on similar characteristics,” said Fletcher, “and potentially happy people choose to be friends with other happy people.”

He added that friends are often exposed to the same environment, including similar levels of crime, risk, and weather, and that those external variables could influence happiness more than a friend’s mood.

In light of these criticisms, both research groups plan to continue probing into the field of happiness with future studies.

“The whole point of science is that you want to capture a great idea but then retain healthy skepticism,” Fowler said.


“Capture a great idea, but retain healthy skepticism”—It sounds a lot like another wise maxim that got a lot of play a quarter of a century ago….